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Bank of America warned of a mild recession at the beginning of the year. Now, it says the Fed is close to ‘sticking' a soft landing. The strength of the economy in 2024 will be driven by consumer spending due to "elevated net wealth." Supply-side improvements have helped bring inflation down. (fortune.com)
2023-12-20 U.S. Inflation

Cooling inflation means Fed will cut rates 5 times in 2024. The world economy has entered a period of "great disinflation." Goldman Sachs is forecasting that the Fed will slash rates by 25 basis points three times in a row between March and June and then ease twice more over the second half (www.businessinsider.com)
2023-12-20 Inflation Goldman

Eggs, Gas, and Other Prices That Are Actually Deflating. The most recent consumer price index (CPI) report shows promising year-over-year price index drops in some goods and services categories. You may be feeling some welcome relief—in the grocery store, at the gas pump, and more. (lifehacker.com)
2023-12-19 Gas CPI

Difference between the inflation rate and growth of wages in the United States from January 2020 to November 2023. In November 2023, year-over-year inflation amounted to 3.1 percent, while wages grew by 5.2 percent. (www.statista.com)
2023-12-19 Inflation

Federal Reserve on Cusp of What Some Thought Impossible: Defeating Inflation Without Steep Recession. “We think the Fed cannot believe its luck: We are back to ‘immaculate disinflation.' ” (vinnews.com)
2023-12-19 Inflation

Larry Summers, in the FT: "The theory to which many economists are gravitating to is that the Phillips curve is basically flat, inflation is set by inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are set by the people who form inflation expectations." (www.ft.com)
2023-12-19 Inflation

Will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024? Here's what Wall Street, economists, and policymakers think (creditnews.com)
2023-12-19 Wall Street Interest Rate

China South City Warns Can't Pay Bond Interest Due Wednesday (www.bloomberg.com)
2023-12-18 China Bond

Economists Struggle to Come to Terms with “Immaculate Disinflation”. Many economists misinterpreted the nature of the inflation spike to begin with, viewing it primarily as a product of excessive demand rather than of pandemic-era supply disruptions, which have now largely disappeared. (www.newyorker.com)
2023-12-18 Inflation

Fed's ‘Transitory' Call Gets Some New Life … for Now. Powell seems to be leaning back into the idea that post-pandemic inflation was, in fact, transitory and poised to come down with time and supply-chain fixes. It just took longer than the Fed originally thought. (www.bloomberg.com)
2023-12-18 Inflation

Here's why bringing down inflation has been different this time, according to Jerome Powell. “This inflation was not the classic demand overload." It's similar to what Powell and other Fed members were saying in 2021, that the rapid price increases would prove to be “transitory.” (www.cnbc.com)
2023-12-18 Inflation

Mortgage rates could drop below 5%, if inflation keeps falling as fast as it has been. Mortgage rates fell to 6.62% yesterday, the lowest reading since May. “If the data continues to do what it has been doing, there's no reason rates couldn't go down into the fives, possibly even high-fours.” (fortune.com)
2023-12-18 mortgage Inflation

This week in Bidenomics: The Fed gets onboard. Biden must be grinning as the Fed pivots from tight monetary policy to possible loosening. Many economists think inflation turned out to be “transitory” after all, instead of a whole new regime of stagflation or worse. (finance.yahoo.com)
2023-12-18 Monetary Inflation

Bank of Japan expected to stick with negative interest rates (www.ft.com)
2023-12-18 Japan Interest Rate

Inflation forces Turkey's central bank chief to move in with parents (www.msn.com)
2023-12-17 Turkey Inflation Central Bank

Government setting price controls to control inflation by party (i.redd.it)
2023-12-17 Inflation

Euro zone likely in recession, PMI surveys show (www.reuters.com)
2023-12-17 PMI

The Federal Reserve could do what was thought impossible: Defeat inflation without a steep recession (apnews.com)
2023-12-17 Inflation

Russia's Central Bank Raises Rates Again, to 16 Percent, to Curb Inflation. The rate increase was the fifth in a row since the central bank began its current cycle of monetary tightening in July, when the rate was 7.5%. “Tight monetary conditions will be maintained in the economy for a long period.” (www.nytimes.com)
2023-12-17 Russia Monetary Inflation Central Bank

As inflation falls, corporate America won't rush to pay the price. Americans are finally seeing real income gains as wage growth outpaces inflation, continuing to boost the consumer and give companies more reason to not give back margin gains. "...they're still enjoying it." (www.cnbc.com)
2023-12-17 U.S. Inflation

Why Supply Chains Are Key to Fighting Inflation. The Biden administration has convened an interagency council to help solve America's supply chain problem. The Council is part of nearly 30 new actions to strengthen supply chains described as critical to economic and national security. (knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu)
2023-12-17 U.S. Inflation

'Excess profits' at big energy and consumer companies pushed up inflation. Major companies in the energy and food sectors amplified inflation in 2022 by passing on greater cost increases than needed to protect margins, according to a new report. (www.cnbc.com)
2023-12-17 Energy Inflation

This Season's Hottest Shopping Trend: Falling Prices. American shoppers, burned by more than two years of rapid inflation, are getting some welcome relief this holiday season: Prices on many products are falling. “Supply chains have basically normalized.” (www.nytimes.com)
2023-12-17 U.S. Inflation

Inflation has cooled a lot. So why do things still feel so expensive? (www.npr.org)
2023-12-17 Inflation

Federal Reserve on cusp of what some thought impossible: Defeating inflation without steep recession (apnews.com)
2023-12-17 Inflation

Fed's Williams calls talks of March interest rate cut ‘premature' (www.foxbusiness.com)
2023-12-17 Interest Rate

Biden Blames Businesses for Inflation, but His Own Numbers Refute Him (www.heritage.org)
2023-12-16 Inflation

U.S. economy will pull off soft landing in 2024, CBO projects. The U.S. economy is on track to avoid a recession next year as inflation returns to normal, according to new economic projections released by the Congressional Budget Office. (www.axios.com)
2023-12-16 U.S. Inflation Budget

Bank of Canada says too early to consider interest rate cuts (financialpost.com)
2023-12-16 Canada Interest Rate

Stiglitz: A Victory Lap for the Transitory Inflation Team. We now know which side was right. Disinflation has confirmed that the earlier price increases were “transitory,” driven largely by supply disruptions and sectoral shifts in demand. Fortunately for the economy, team transitory was right. (rooseveltinstitute.org)
2023-12-16 Inflation

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